Ida Has Become The Predicted Monster, Almost a Cat. 5…

3 September 2021 0 By Bambam
Cudos to NHC for being very consistent in their messaging with Ida.  From the get go their track has varied only 30-40 miles and that’s remarkable from 5 days out.  What has changed over night is the strength of Ida, rapidly intensifying to almost a Cat. 5. (150 mph)  The Eyewall has reached the coast and the Eye itself has moved west of the mouth of the River.

The 4AM center line track hasn’t changed since last night, so the eastward shift has stopped.  What we need to see during the next 5-10 hours is the center to go slightly west of the NHC forecast so metro NOLA doesn’t get clipped by the eyewall winds.

The worst impacts will hit from Grand Isle to Kenner to Hammond westward.   Even the heart of the city could see 100+ gusts since Ida has become stronger.  Here’s the current radar views.

There is a heavy band of rain over the North Shore, but not much south until you reach the coast.  Zack Fradella used future radar to show where the eyewall will go.

The far eastern part of the eyewall clips NOLA  You can see the cities west of MSY that will feel the brunt of the storm.

The other major change from NHC is a higher storm surge since Ida is stronger.   Now the Mississippi coast will see 6-8 feet+ which will probably put wat up on Hwy 90.  Grand Isle’s surge could be 16’+ with up to 8; in Lake P.  Look at the wave heights offshore!

Winds are still rather tame, but they will quickly ramp up after 10 AM.  So the table has been set for days.  We’ve known the danger was coming.  The predictions have been super accurate.  Now it’s time to “hunker down” and pray.  My blog posts are internet dependent so I might have to switch over to my son (Rob) in Colorado later today when cable goes out.  He has set up a link for you to send damage photos , but don’t go taking them until AFTER the winds subsides.
photos@bobbreck.com
A final note…landfalling hurricanes often have quick burst tornadoes that give little warning time, if any.  When you get into a heavy rain squall, be prepared to be in your “safe room” in case a tornado dips down.  Stay safe and my next post will be at 10 AM.  Let’s keep hoping the eye drifts farther to the west of Port Fourchon keeping the eyewall winds from the city.  

Recon data has the pressure still falling so Ida could be a Cat. 5 at landfall.  Pray for the people along the coast and in the eyewall path.  Stay tuned!